| Business Rules for Savings through Increased US Energy Independence Version 4 | | The rules semantically link data from: | | www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/appa.pdf | tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm | www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo06/special_topics.html | www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/units.html | | See also knol.google.com/k/-/-/15x31uzlqeo5n/1# | | You can view, run and change the rules, by pointing a browser to www.reengineeringllc.com | and selecting EnergyIndependence1. | | You can get step-by-step English explanations of the results, showing the underlying data | and calculations. | | Note that the results may be optimistic. | | You are cordially invited to write improvements to the rules and facts below. | To do so, please use the pulldown menu on the Start page to make your own copy of this agent. | Then, make your improvements to the copy. (Changes to this file will be periodically reversed) | You may find the tutorials helpful, starting with www.reengineeringllc.com/IBL_tutorial_part1.html | | It has been pointed out that the costs of infrastructure changes are missing. | (If you are knowledgeable, please add these) | | Please send comments to internet.business.logic@gmail.com as a step towards energy independence, the US would like to reduce the cost of oil imports by some-total billion 2007 $ by 2030 the US could replace imported oil with energy from some-source costing some-amount billion $ per year that-total - that-amount = some-long-number that-long-number rounded to 1 place(s) after the decimal point is some-number --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- switching from imported oil to energy from that-source could potentially save the US that-number billion $ per year by 2030 as a step towards energy independence, the US would like to reduce oil imports by some-number barrels per year to convert from Quadrillion Btu to barrels of gasoline, multiply by some-factor that-number / that-factor = some-quadrillion-btu to change Quadrillion Btu to gigawatt-hours, multiply by some-btu-gwh-factor those-quadrillion-btu * that-btu-gwh-factor = some-number-gigawatt-hours that-number-gigawatt-hours * 1000 = some-number-megawatt-hours estimated cost of electricity from some-source is some-quantity $/MWh according to some-reference (includes capital costs) that-number-megawatt-hours * that-quantity = some-$amount that-$amount / 1000000000 = some-long-amount that-long-amount rounded to 1 place(s) after the decimal point is an-amount ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- the US could replace imported oil with energy from that-source costing that-amount billion $ per year as a step towards energy independence, the US would like to reduce oil imports by some-number barrels per year to convert from Quadrillion Btu to barrels of gasoline, multiply by some-factor that-number / that-factor = some-quadrillion-btu liquid fuel has an average price of some-amount in 2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) that-amount * 1000000000 = some-price-per-quadrillion-btu those-quadrillion-btu * that-price-per-quadrillion-btu = some-total$ that-total$ / 1000000000 = some-total ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ as a step towards energy independence, the US would like to reduce the cost of oil imports by that-total billion 2007 $ by 2030 sum an-amount : the US would like to reduce oil imports from some-country by some-amount barrels per year = some-number ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- as a step towards energy independence, the US would like to reduce oil imports by that-number barrels per year as a step towards energy independence, the US would like to reduce oil imports from some-country towards the end of 2008, US oil imports from that-country were about some-number thousand barrels per month that-number * 12000 = some-amount ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- the US would like to reduce oil imports from that-country by that-amount barrels per year this-fuel can be classified as being of type this-type ========================================================== Aviation Gasoline Liquids Coal Anthracite Coal Coal Bituminous Coal Coal Lignite Coal Coal Subbituminous Coal Distillate Fuel Oil and Diesel Liquids Flare Gas Natural Gas Geothermal Energy Other Hydropower Other Jet Fuel Liquids Kerosene Liquids Landfill Gas Other Liquified Petroleum Gases (LPG) Liquids Methane Natural Gas Motor Gasoline Other Municipal Solid Waste Other Natural Gas (Pipeline) Natural Gas Nuclear Nuclear Petroleum Coke Coal Photovoltaic and Solar Thermal Other Propane Natural Gas Residual Fuel Oil Liquids Tires/Tire-Derived Fuel Liquids Wind Other Wood and Wood Waste Other Diesel Fuel Liquids Distillate Fuel Oil Liquids E854 Liquids Jet Fuel Liquids Liquefied Petroleum Gases Liquids Metallurgical Coal Coal Motor Gasoline Liquids Natural Gas Natural Gas Other Coal Coal Other Industrial Coal Coal Residual Fuel Oil Liquids Gasoline produces some-number million Btu per barrel (source: www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/units.html) 1 / that-number = some-number-barrels/millionBtu that-number-barrels/millionBtu * 1000000000 = some-number-barrels/QuadBtu ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- to convert from Quadrillion Btu to barrels of gasoline, multiply by that-number-barrels/QuadBtu this-fuel produces this-number million Btu per this-unit (source: www.physics.uci.edu/~silverma/units.html) ============================================================================================================ Coal 25 ton Crude Oil 5.6 barrel Oil 5.78 barrel Gasoline 5.6 barrel Natural gas liquids 4.2 barrel Natural gas 1030*10e-6 cubic foot Wood 20 cord to change Btu to kilowatt-hours, multiply by this-factor ======================================================= 0.0002931 to change Btu to kilowatt-hours, multiply by some-amount that-amount * 1000000000 = some-factor -------------------------------------------------------------------- to change Quadrillion Btu to gigawatt-hours, multiply by that-factor some-number1 + some-number2 = some-number3 that-number3 rounded to 1 place(s) after the decimal point is some-number -------------------------------------------------------------------------- adding that-number1 to that-number2 and rounding to 1 place gives that-number some-number1 * some-number2 = some-number3 that-number3 rounded to 1 place(s) after the decimal point is some-number --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- multiplying that-number1 by that-number2 and rounding to 1 place gives that-number avg some-price : some-fuel of type Liquids is priced at some-price in 2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) = a-number that-number rounded to 1 place(s) after the decimal point is an-amount --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- liquid fuel has an average price of that-amount in 2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) some-fuel of type Liquids is priced at some-price1 in 2007 and at some-price in 2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- that-fuel of type Liquids is priced at that-price in 2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) some-fuel can be classified as being of type Liquids Average Price that-fuel is priced at some-price1 in 2007 and at some-price2 in 2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- that-fuel of type Liquids is priced at that-price1 in 2007 and at that-price2 in 2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) table A3 price data: some-group some-fuel some-2006 some-2007-price some-2010 some-2015 some-2020 some-2025 some-2030-price (2007 $ per Million Btu) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- that-group that-fuel is priced at that-2007-price in 2007 and at that-2030-price in 2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) estimated cost of electricity from this-source is this-amount $/MWh according to this-reference (includes capital costs) ======================================================================================================================== wind 55.80 www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo06/special_topics.html coal 53.10 www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo06/special_topics.html natural gas 52.50 www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo06/special_topics.html nuclear 59.3 www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/archive/ieo06/special_topics.html as a step towards energy independence, the US would like to reduce oil imports from this-country ================================================================================================ Azerbaijan Belarus Congo (Brazzaville) Gabon Iraq Ivory Coast Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Malaysia Nigeria Oman Russia Saudi Arabia Syria United Arab Emirates Venezuela | http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm U.S. Imports by Country of Origin in thousand barrels per month towards the end of 2008, US oil imports from this-country were about this-number thousand barrels per month =========================================================================================================== Algeria 17218 Angola 16703 Ecuador 6197 Indonesia 502 Iraq 17890 Kuwait 7440 Libya 4107 Nigeria 30347 Saudi Arabia 46104 United Arab Emirates 700 Venezuela 36018 Argentina 1146 Aruba 4194 Australia 50 Azerbaijan 3871 Bahamas 114 Belarus 813 Belgium 2844 Belize 124 Brazil 10988 Cameroon 403 Canada 80186 Chad 3407 China 76 China Taiwan 177 Colombia 6193 Congo (Brazzaville) 1894 Costa Rica 128 Egypt 1090 El Salvador 130 Equatorial Guinea 3543 Estonia 322 Finland 647 France 3285 Gabon 1075 Germany 1415 Guatemala 622 Israel 152 Italy 2320 Ivory Coast 561 Jamaica 116 Japan 15 Kazakhstan 557 Korea South 1300 Kyrgyzstan 0 Latvia 70 Lithuania 282 Malaysia 20 Malta 65 Mauritania 0 Mexico 44428 Netherlands 5450 Netherlands Antilles 441 New Zealand 571 Niue 313 Norway 2174 Oman 1366 Pakistan 0 Panama 3 Papua New Guinea 0 Peru 1358 Philippines 0 Poland 32 Portugal 401 Puerto Rico 0 Romania 28 Russia 12214 Senegal 0 Singapore 242 Slovakia 0 South Africa 6 Spain 1591 Spatly Islands 0 Swaziland 0 Sweden 1120 Switzerland 0 Syria 373 Thailand 396 Togo 0 Trinidad and Tobago 2350 Tunisia 459 Turkey 387 Turkmenistan 100 Ukraine 290 United Kingdom 11962 Uruguay 0 Vietnam 884 Virgin Islands (U.S.) 8264 table A3 price data: this-group this-fuel this-2006 this-2007 this-2010 this-2015 this-2020 this-2025 this-2030 (2007 $ per Million Btu) ========================================================================================================================================= Residential Liquefied Petroleum Gases 23.88 24.98 24.79 32.03 32.52 33.39 34.92 Residential Distillate Fuel Oil 18.46 19.66 17.74 23.46 24.12 24.97 26.71 Residential Natural Gas 13.70 12.69 11.96 11.97 12.50 13.05 14.33 Residential Electricity 31.21 31.19 30.75 31.76 32.70 34.06 35.90 Commercial Liquefied Petroleum Gases 21.20 23.04 21.61 28.80 29.24 30.08 31.58 Commercial Distillate Fuel Oil 15.02 16.05 15.22 21.50 22.06 22.93 24.70 Commercial Residual Fuel Oil 8.88 10.21 10.34 16.01 16.66 17.05 17.99 Commercial Natural Gas 11.90 10.99 10.42 10.55 11.13 11.72 12.97 Commercial Electricity 28.38 28.07 27.14 27.11 28.12 29.25 31.10 Industrial Liquefied Petroleum Gases 21.04 23.38 20.77 28.00 28.44 29.30 30.80 Industrial Distillate Fuel Oil 15.74 16.82 15.09 22.07 22.47 23.37 25.17 Industrial Residual Fuel Oil 9.21 10.49 14.60 20.33 20.82 21.44 22.79 Industrial Natural Gas 7.96 7.52 6.79 7.00 7.48 7.98 9.07 Industrial Metallurgical Coal 3.64 3.61 4.35 4.39 4.40 4.55 4.42 Industrial Other Industrial Coal 2.40 2.43 2.52 2.59 2.54 2.58 2.66 Industrial Coal to Liquids 0 0 0 1.22 1.24 1.33 1.37 Industrial Electricity 18.41 18.63 18.61 18.30 19.04 20.08 21.66 Transportation Liquefied Petroleum Gases 22.30 25.01 24.60 31.83 32.26 33.08 34.58 Transportation E854 25.51 26.67 24.39 25.17 29.11 29.75 30.10 Transportation Motor Gasoline 21.78 22.98 22.49 28.61 29.54 30.76 32.20 Transportation Jet Fuel6 15.24 16.10 15.07 21.20 21.89 22.76 24.54 Transportation Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil7 20.27 20.92 19.13 25.74 25.95 26.80 28.55 Transportation Residual Fuel Oil 8.21 9.35 11.08 16.96 17.25 18.18 19.68 Transportation Natural Gas8 16.04 15.46 14.78 14.70 14.90 15.26 16.26 Transportation Electricity 30.39 30.64 30.19 30.23 29.45 31.56 34.16 Electric Power Distillate Fuel Oil 13.77 14.77 14.16 19.85 20.54 21.39 23.16 Electric Power Residual Fuel Oil 8.38 8.38 12.32 18.06 18.42 19.27 20.70 Electric Power Natural Gas 7.05 7.02 6.47 6.70 7.15 7.73 8.70 Electric Power Steam Coal 1.74 1.77 1.88 1.95 1.92 1.96 2.04 Average Price to All Users Liquefied Petroleum Gases 15.66 18.53 19.97 26.66 27.23 28.09 29.61 Average Price to All Users E854 25.51 26.67 24.39 25.17 29.11 29.75 30.10 Average Price to All Users Motor Gasoline5 21.65 22.82 22.49 28.61 29.54 30.76 32.20 Average Price to All Users Jet Fuel 15.24 16.10 15.07 21.20 21.89 22.76 24.54 Average Price to All Users Distillate Fuel Oil 19.17 19.94 18.06 24.86 25.20 26.10 27.92 Average Price to All Users Residual Fuel Oil 8.42 9.25 11.72 17.52 17.85 18.70 20.14 Average Price to All Users Natural Gas 9.50 9.01 8.45 8.63 9.12 9.60 10.74 Average Price to All Users Metallurgical Coal 3.64 3.61 4.35 4.39 4.40 4.55 4.42 Average Price to All Users Other Coal 1.78 1.81 1.92 1.98 1.95 2.00 2.07 Average Price to All Users Coal to Liquids 0 0 0 1.22 1.24 1.33 1.37 Average Price to All Users Electricity 26.68 26.70 26.28 26.51 27.55 28.82 30.64 Residential Liquefied Petroleum Gases 23.26 24.98 26.10 37.06 41.98 46.06 50.62 Residential Distillate Fuel Oil 17.98 19.66 18.68 27.14 31.15 34.44 38.72 Residential Natural Gas 13.34 12.69 12.59 13.85 16.14 18.00 20.77 Residential Electricity 30.39 31.19 32.38 36.75 42.22 46.98 52.04 Commercial Liquefied Petroleum Gases 20.64 23.04 22.76 33.32 37.75 41.49 45.77 Commercial Distillate Fuel Oil 14.63 16.05 16.02 24.87 28.48 31.62 35.80 Commercial Residual Fuel Oil 8.65 10.21 10.88 18.53 21.51 23.52 26.08 Commercial Natural Gas 11.58 10.99 10.97 12.21 14.37 16.17 18.80 Commercial Electricity 27.63 28.07 28.58 31.37 36.31 40.34 45.08 Industrial Liquefied Petroleum Gases 20.49 23.38 21.87 32.39 36.72 40.42 44.65 Industrial Distillate Fuel Oil 15.32 16.82 15.89 25.54 29.01 32.23 36.49 Industrial Residual Fuel Oil 8.97 10.49 15.37 23.53 26.89 29.57 33.03 Industrial Natural Gas 7.75 7.52 7.15 8.10 9.66 11.00 13.15 Industrial Metallurgical Coal 3.54 3.61 4.58 5.08 5.68 6.28 6.40 Industrial Other Coal 2.34 2.43 2.66 3.00 3.28 3.56 3.86 Industrial Coal to Liquids 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.41 1.59 1.83 1.99 Industrial Electricity 17.93 18.63 19.60 21.18 24.59 27.70 31.40 Transportation Liquefied Petroleum Gases 21.71 25.01 25.90 36.83 41.65 45.63 50.12 Transportation E854 24.84 26.67 25.68 29.12 37.59 41.04 43.63 Transportation Motor Gasoline5 21.21 22.98 23.68 33.10 38.14 42.43 46.67 Transportation Jet Fuel6 14.84 16.10 15.87 24.53 28.27 31.39 35.57 Transportation Diesel Fuel 19.74 20.92 20.14 29.78 33.51 36.97 41.39 Transportation Residual Fuel Oil 7.99 9.35 11.66 19.62 22.28 25.08 28.52 Transportation Natural Gas 15.62 15.46 15.56 17.01 19.24 21.04 23.57 Transportation Electricity 29.59 30.64 31.79 34.98 38.02 43.54 49.52 Electric Power Distillate Fuel Oil 13.41 14.77 14.91 22.97 26.52 29.51 33.58 Electric Power Residual Fuel Oil 8.16 8.38 12.97 20.90 23.78 26.58 30.00 Electric Power Natural Gas 6.87 7.02 6.81 7.75 9.23 10.66 12.60 Electric Power Steam Coal 1.69 1.77 1.98 2.25 2.48 2.71 2.96 Average Price Liquefied Petroleum Gases 15.25 18.53 21.02 30.85 35.16 38.74 42.92 Average Price E854 24.84 26.67 25.68 29.12 37.59 41.04 43.63 Average Price Motor Gasoline5 21.08 22.82 23.68 33.10 38.14 42.43 46.67 Average Price Jet Fuel 14.84 16.10 15.87 24.53 28.27 31.39 35.57 Average Price Distillate Fuel Oil 18.67 19.94 19.02 28.77 32.54 36.00 40.47 Average Price Residual Fuel Oil 8.20 9.25 12.34 20.27 23.05 25.80 29.20 Average Price Natural Gas 9.25 9.01 8.89 9.99 11.77 13.24 15.58 Average Price Metallurgical Coal 3.54 3.61 4.58 5.08 5.68 6.28 6.40 Average Price Other Coal 1.73 1.81 2.02 2.29 2.52 2.75 3.00 Average Price Coal to Liquids 0 0 0 1.41 1.59 1.83 1.99 Average Price Electricity 25.98 26.70 27.67 30.68 35.57 39.75 44.42 | This file is an application written in the language Executable English. | You can view, run and change it by pointing a browser | to www.reengineeringllc.com and selecting EnergyIndependence1.